MBA Chart of the Week: Estimated Mortgage Originations: 1999-2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced last week it expects to see $1.10 trillion in purchase mortgage originations during 2017, an 11 percent increase from 2016.
In contrast, MBA anticipates refinance originations will decrease by 40 percent, resulting in refinance mortgage originations of $529 billion. In total, mortgage originations will decrease to $1.63 trillion in 2017 from $1.89 trillion in 2016. For 2018, MBA forecasts purchase originations of $1.18 trillion and refinance originations of $410 billion for a total of $1.59 trillion.
Strong household formation coupled with further job growth, rising wages and continuing home price appreciation will drive strong growth in purchase originations in the coming years.
MBA upwardly revised its estimate of originations for 2015 to $1.68 trillion from $1.63 trillion, to reflect most recent data reported in the 2015 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data release.
You can download a copy of MBA’s updated Mortgage Finance Forecast and a copy of MBA’s updated Economic Forecast at https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-commentary.
To view the Chart of the Week, click https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/forecasts-and-commentary/chart-of-the-week.
(Michael Fratantoni is chief economist and senior vice president of research and economics with the Mortgage Bankers Association. He can be reached at mfratantoni@mba.org. Lynn Fisher is vice president of research and economics with MBA; she can be reached at lfisher@mba.org. Joel Kan associate vice president of economic forecasting with MBA; he can be reached at jkan@mba.org).
