Fannie Mae: Fewer Consumers Expect Home Prices, Mortgage Rates to Keep Climbing
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index dipped in May as more consumers report mixed views toward housing and income growth.
The index fell by 2.1 points to 83.2 in June, down from May’s record survey high (85.3).
Among those surveyed, the share who said now is a good time to sell a home increased by 5 percentage points on net to a survey-high of 18 percent; those saying now is a good time to buy a home rose 3 percentage points on net to 32 percent. The share of consumers who expect home prices to go up over the next 12 months dropped 9 percentage points on net. In addition, those reporting that their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago dropped 10 percentage points on net in June, and the net share of consumers who are not concerned about losing their job fell 4 percentage points. Fewer consumers also reported a positive outlook on the state of the economy–those who think the economy is on the wrong track ticked up to 59 percent in June.
Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said the June pullback suggests a slight weakening in the 12-month outlook for housing activity.
“Pending home sales have pulled back in the face of continued home price growth, and we’re seeing some softening in the higher priced components of the market,” Duncan said. “Growing pessimism about the overall direction of the economy gives us further pause as it now stands at the highest level we’ve seen in our National Housing Survey in the last two years. Meaningful improvement in the housing market going forward will likely require consistent upward movement in consumers’ income growth perceptions, which have thus far been stagnant. Also helpful would be an acceleration of supply accumulation of entry-level homes, which would moderate the growth of real home prices and increase affordability.”
Other survey data:
–After three straight months of declines, the net share of Americans who say that it is a good time to buy a house rose by 3 percentage points to 32%.
–Selling sentiment rose in June, with the net percentage of those who say it is a good time to sell rising 5 percentage points to 18%, a new survey high. A survey high and low were reached for those who think it is a good time and bad time to sell a home.
–The net share of Americans who say that home prices will go up fell 9 percentage points to 33%.
–The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months rose 2 percentage points to negative 41%, reaching an 18-month high.
–The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned with losing their job fell 4 percentage points to 68%.
–The net share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago fell 10 percentage points to 8%, the largest month-to-month decline in the survey’s history.
