Leading Economic Indicators Up–This Month

The Conference Board, New York, reported its Leading Economic Index increased by 0.3 percent in June to 123.7, following an 0.2 percent decline in May and an 0.5 percent increase in April.

The Coincident Economic Index increased by 0.3 percent in June to 113.8, following no change in May and an 0.2 percent increase in April. The Lagging Economic Index declined by 0.1 percent in June to 121.9, following an 0.4 percent increase in May and an 0.2 percent increase in April.

“While the LEI continues to point to moderating economic growth in the U.S. through the end of 2016, the expansion still appears resilient enough to weather volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of Business Cycles and Growth Research with The Conference Board.

Tim Quinlan, economist with Wells Fargo Securities, Charlotte, N.C., noted the LEI is “back in the black” after a rough winter.

“The decline in the number of applicants for jobless insurance resulted in the largest overall boost to the LEI in June, and jobless claims have continued to head lower in July,” Quinlan said. “A pick-up in building permits, stock prices and the leading credit index also helped as did the interest rate spread. It bears noting that the rates contribution far and away has been the major positive driver over the past six months.”