Zillow: 2 Million Homes at Risk of Rising Sea Levels

Talk about your “underwater” mortgage.

Zillow Inc., Seattle, said should ocean levels rise by six feet, as scientists predict by year 2100, as many as two million U.S. homes could be lost.

The prediction, from research published in scientific journal Nature, puts just under 2 percent of the nation’s housing stock, worth a cumulative $882 billion.

Zillow based its estimate using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations, which reported sea levels could rise by six feet, resulting from melting Antarctic ice sheets, by 2100. This is double previous projections.

“If sea levels rise as much as climate scientists predict by the year 2100, nearly 300 U.S. cities would lose at least half their homes, and 36 U.S. cities would be completely lost,” Zillow said. “One in eight Florida homes would be underwater, accounting for nearly half of the lost housing value nationwide.”

Additionally, Zillow said more than 9 percent of homes in Hawaii would be underwater; 81 percent of those are in Honolulu. Among coastal states, Pennsylvania, Oregon and California have the lowest share of homes at risk of being underwater. Just 0.1 percent of homes in Pennsylvania would be lost if the ocean level rises six feet.

The at-risk homes along the waterfront are 58 percent more valuable than the average U.S. home, Zillow said. The median value of a home at risk in the underwater zone is $296,296. The value of the average U.S. home is $187,000. The biggest difference in home values is in Maine, where homes at the water’s edge are worth $436,798, more than three times the statewide median home value of $138,900. By contrast, homes at risk of rising oceans are less valuable than the typical home in Hawaii, Maryland, Washington and Oregon.

“As we move through this century, homeowners will have to consider another factor when it comes to their homes–whether rising sea levels have any impact on them,” said Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell. “It’s easy to think about how the ocean levels can affect the coasts in an abstract sense, but this analysis shows the real impact it will have on nearly two million homeowners–and most likely more by the time we reach 2100–who could lose their homes.”