Pro Teck: Healthy Housing Trends Heading East

Pro Teck Valuation Services, Waltham, Mass., said favorable real estate trends previously experienced out West have now begun to head East–further evidence of a broad national recovery.

The company’s Home Value Forecast noted last month, only the Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. metropolitan area appeared in its top 10 market. This month, half of the top 10 are from the East and 18 of the top 35 markets are from eastern states.

More broadly, said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services, nearly 70 percent of the 200 metro areas tracked are in “normal” condition or better.

“In the top ten it’s all about inventory,” O’Grady said. “The number of homes for sale are down 10-50 percent, leading to low Months of Remaining Inventory and high competition for houses that are available. One reason for this is the lack of new housing starts during the crash.”

Pro Tech said top 10 metro areas this month include Oak Harbor, Wash.; Mount Vernon-Anacortes, Wash.; Visalia-Porterville, Calif.; Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.; Portland-South Portland, Maine; Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, Md.; Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.; Richmond, Va.; Stockton-Lodi, Calif.; and Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, Calif.

Pro Teck said in Richmond, for example, for more than 10 years before the housing crash, an average of 6,000-8,000 single family homes were added to the community per year. “This has been cut in half over the last eight years, leading to today’s limited supply,” O’Grady said. “Richmond, along with the rest of the country, has seen an uptick in permits as builders continue to ramp up construction. Balance should return as new construction increases.”

Bottom 10 metros this month include Huntsville, Ala.; Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazleton, Pa.; Charleston, W.V.; Midland, Texas; Gary, Ind.; Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J.; Jacksonville, N.C.; Flint, Mich.; Muskegon, Mich.; and Saginaw, Mich.

The Michigan metros, O’Grady said, are still having a rough go with foreclosures stifling the recovery. “Flint’s REO inventory has been high for nine years, dragging down prices and not allowing any substantial appreciation,” he said. “Also, Flint’s water crisis is not over–unfiltered water still has high levels of lead.”