Begala, Carlson Offer 2016 Election Preview
SAN DIEGO–As the country prepares for a change in leadership change with the 2016 presidential election, Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO David Stevens, CMB, said polls indicate much about the temperature of the country and the appetite Americans have for the status quo in Washington.
“Just take a look at the political composition of the candidates and their favorability ratings,” Stevens said here at the MBA 102nd Annual Convention & Expo. “Americans want something different. They want the country to move in a different direction. Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina top the group of Republican Party candidates; none of whom have ever held a political office in their life. Within the Democratic Party ranks, Bernie Sanders, while a career politician, gains ground against Hillary Clinton–a known entity who bears the name of one of the most beloved presidents of our time.”
Stevens said the anti-establishment mindset that echoes throughout the country is undeniable. “It continues to be a resounding theme,” he said. “Voters want to move this country forward, but they want to do it in a different way.”
In that vein, political analysts Paul Begala of CNN and Tucker Carlson of Fox News offered attendees a lively point-counterpoint on the upcoming presidential race.
“Trump is fascinating to cover. He is the repository of lots of peoples’ anger; he also specializes in saying things that many people think,” Carlson said. “People in Washington hate that; we’re shocked by that; but he is resonating with a lot of people. People love a strong man; they will follow a leader.”
Begala noted the failure of common pre-election wisdom–which all but decreed that Republican Jeb Bush would face off against Democrat Hillary Clinton–is the story of the election so far. “Hillary had to come to earth,” he said. “But what’s fascinating is that Bush has underperformed, which has allowed Trump, Carson and others to fill the vacuum.”
So, if Bush can’t win the nomination and Trump doesn’t win the nomination, who wins? Begala said the nomination would still be decided well before the Convention. “Ted Cruz,” he said. “He has the support of the Tea Party and enough moderates. He speaks fluent Spanish. He can do this.”
Carlson conceded that Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas, has appeal and has the ability to raise a lot of money, but disagreed with Begala’s prediction. “There is something about Cruz that is powerfully alienating,” he said. “He has literally no friends in the U.S. Senate. You need people to be on your team; he doesn’t have anyone.”
Carlson said election-watchers shouldn’t discount Carly Fiorina. “She has an unbelievable ability to talk issues,” he said. “And she is the one candidate who can neutralize Hillary Clinton.”
Despite that sentiment, Carlson predicted Clinton would become the Democratic Party nominee. “She knows that Bernie Sanders can’t last through the primaries,” he said. “She just has to outlast him…but her message is, ‘you’ve had men running for president for 4,000 years, it’s time to elect a woman. That’s why Fiorina is so effective-she disarms Clinton for who she is.”
Does President Barack Obama help or hurt Clinton? “It’s all in the numbers,” Begala said. “He will not tank Clinton. I think he can help her.”
Carlson noted that the early popularity of Trump, Carson and Sanders point to a trend that savvy politicians should not ignore.
“It’s an anti-establishment year,” Carlson said. “A large percentage of Democrats say they would vote for a socialist for president; that’s not surprising. But a significant number of Republicans say they would vote for a socialist. What?”
Neither Carlson nor Begala said they believed a third party will emerge in the next few years. “I think it would be bad for our system,” Begala said. “Both the Democrats and the Republicans would rather work with each other than have to include a legitimate third party.”
