Report: Immigration to Account for 88% of U.S. Population Growth by 2065
A report by the Pew Research Center said under current demographic trend scenarios, immigrants and their descendants could account for 88 percent of U.S. population growth by 2065.
The report (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wave-brings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065/) said between 2015 and 2065, more than 103 million immigrants and their descendants will drive the U.S. population to 441 million.
The report, based on Census Bureau data, noted between 1965 (the year Congress passed the Immigration and Nationality Act that rewrote U.S. immigration policy) and 2015, nearly 59 million immigrants arrived in the United States, pushing the country’s foreign-born share to a near-record 14 percent. These immigrants and their descendants accounted for slightly more than half the nation’s population growth and reshaped its racial and ethnic composition.
Before 1965, the U.S. foreign-born population totaled less than 10 million; by 2015; the figure increased to 45 million. The U.S. has, by far, the world’s largest immigrant population, with one in five of the world’s immigrants. Between 1965 and 2015, new immigrants, their children and their grandchildren accounted for 55 percent of U.S. population growth, adding 72 million people to the nation’s population as it grew from 193 million in 1965 to 324 million in 2015.
By 2065, the U.S. will have 78 million immigrants, according to Pew Research population projections, pushing the foreign-born population even higher, to 18 percent by 2065. The combined population share of immigrants and their U.S.-born children, 26 percent today, is projected to rise to 36 percent in 2065, at least equaling previous peak levels at the turn of the 20th century.
The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act made significant changes to U.S. immigration policy by sweeping away a long-standing national origins quota system that favored immigrants from Europe and replacing it with one that emphasized family reunification and skilled immigrants. After replacement of the nation’s European-focused origin quota system, greater numbers of immigrants from other parts of the world began to come to the U.S. Among immigrants who have arrived since 1965, half (51 percent) are from Latin America and one-quarter are from Asia. By comparison, both of the U.S. immigration waves in the mid-19th century and early 20th century consisted almost entirely of European immigrants.
The study said as a result of its changed makeup and rapid growth, new immigration since 1965 altered the nation’s racial and ethnic composition. In 1965, 84 percent of Americans were non-Hispanic whites. By 2015, that share had declined to 62 percent. Meanwhile, the Hispanic share of the U.S. population rose from 4 percent in 1965 to 18 percent in 2015. Asians also saw their share rise, from less than 1 percent in 1965 to 6 percent in 2015.
“Without any post-1965 immigration, the nation’s racial and ethnic composition would be very different today: 75 percent white, 14 percent black, 8 percent Hispanic and less than 1 percent Asian,” the study said.
Pew said non-Hispanic whites are projected to become less than half of the U.S. population by 2055 and 46 percent by 2065, with no racial or ethnic group constituting a majority of the U.S. population. Meanwhile, Hispanics will see their population share rise to 24 percent by 2065, while Asians will see their share rise to 14 percent.
A previous Pew Research survey found 45 percent of Americans say immigrants in the U.S. are making American society better in the long run, while 37 percent say they are making it worse (16 percent say immigrants are not having much effect). The same survey said half of Americans want to see immigration to the U.S. reduced (49 percent), and eight-in-ten (82 percent) said the U.S. immigration system either needs major changes or it needs to be completely rebuilt.
