Chart of the Week: Inflation and Hourly Earnings

The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), exceeded wage growth, defined as the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings, in April and May 2026. The last time this happened was during the COVID-19 pandemic period of 2021 to 2023, when demand and supply imbalances pushed inflation as high as 9%.

New York Fed: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase

Households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and medium-term horizons and remained unchanged at the longer-term horizon, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported.

#MBACREF23: Ferguson Sees Mild(er) Recession Ahead

SAN DIEGO–Economist, corporate executive and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson thinks any possible recession this year will likely be short and shallow.