The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), exceeded wage growth, defined as the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings, in April and May 2026. The last time this happened was during the COVID-19 pandemic period of 2021 to 2023, when demand and supply imbalances pushed inflation as high as 9%.
Tag: Chart of the Week
Chart of the Week: Homeownership by Country
In a forthcoming MBA White Paper, “Implications of a Persistent Slowing in Housing Demand,” MBA’s Research and Economics team examines, among other topics, homeownership rates in the United States by age and by race and ethnicity. The overall homeownership rate stood at 65.3% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
MBA Chart of the Week: Commercial, Multifamily Interest Rates
The 10-year Treasury rate has jumped to 4.5% due to the spike in inflation. With the job market holding steady, the Federal Reserve’s next move is likely to be a rate hike, with MBA’s forecast predicting a first hike in mid-2027. Furthermore, the increase in rates is impacting on financing costs for commercial real estate.
Chart of the Week: Total Commercial Real Estate Lending, 2020-2025
Based on the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) 2025 Commercial/Multifamily Annual Origination Volume Summation report, the commercial real estate lending market demonstrated meaningful recovery in 2025, with total origination volume reaching approximately $706 billion.
MBA Chart of the Week: Consumer Price Index Inflation
The impact of the war in Iran and the disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed inflation to the forefront of economic concerns.
Chart of the Week: Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates, Range Since 1996
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Commercial Delinquency Report, commercial mortgage delinquency rates were mixed across investor groups in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Chart of the Week: Monthly Payroll Growth and Unemployment Rates
In February 2026, with job losses in health care due to labor strikes, there was nothing left to support aggregate job growth, and total nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000. Furthermore, job growth for December and January was revised down by a total of 69,000. Wage growth increased slightly to 3.8% over the past year.
Chart of the Week: Commercial Real Estate Loan Maturity Volumes
Seventeen percent ($875 billion) of the $5.0 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors is scheduled to mature in 2026, a 9% decrease from the $957 billion that was scheduled to mature in 2025. This is according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes.
Chart of the Week: Annual Change in PCE Inflation
While markets were eager for Friday’s report on Q4 2025 GDP, perhaps the most significant result was that PCE inflation increased 2.8% compared to a year ago, a reacceleration from the third quarter, with the core measure exhibiting a 2.9% increase.
MBA Chart of the Week: The Steepening of the Yield Curve in Multifamily Lending
The yield curve steepened significantly from the end of 2024 and through 2025. The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, leading to a decline in short-term rates while long-term rates remained elevated.