Leading Economic Indicators Edge Down in August
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An index of leading economic indicators dipped 0.1% in August after a slight increase in July, according to The Conference Board, New York.
As a result, the Leading Economic Index’s six-month growth was –0.1% between February and August 2026, a much smaller rate of decline compared to –0.6% over the previous six months.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, noted the dip was the first monthly decline since March. “Four out of ten components fell compared to the previous month, with consumer expectations remaining a significant strain on the index,” she added. “Building permits also declined on a monthly basis, with decreases in both single- and multi-unit categories and across nearly all regions. The West was the only exception, recording a small increase in total permits.”
Zabinska-La Monica said due to the latest decline, the index suggests a less certain economic environment ahead. “The economy is still expanding, but growth is expected to slow. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP to increase at a 1.9% rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 downwardly revised from 1.9% to 1.8%.”
The index’s components include:
- Leading Credit Index™
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
- Building permits for new private housing units
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
