MBA Economist Mike Fratantoni Reacts to Second-Quarter GDP Numbers

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Per a Bureau of Economic Analysis release July 30, real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q2 2026, according to the advance estimate.

In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1%.

“Economic growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter, largely a result of an increase in the trade deficit, with net exports subtracting 1% from overall growth. Consumer spending, growing at 2% in the second quarter, continues to hold up well despite the geopolitical uncertainties and elevated inflation,” said MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni. “PCE inflation, at a 3.7% year-over-year rate in June, continues to run well ahead of the Fed’s 2% target. With energy prices spiking again in July, there’s no sign of slowing any time soon.”