LightBox: CRE Activity Index Pauses as Investors Await Fed Signal
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Commercial real estate activity slipped in August, according to LightBox, Irvine, Calif.
The LightBox CRE Activity Index, dipped to 104.8 from July’s 111.8 and June’s multi-year high 116.2. Part of the decline reflected a typical late-summer slowdown, but the dip also signaled rising caution as market participants digest a mix of economic signals on inflation, jobs, corporate earnings and consumer spending, the report indicated.
“August’s dip is in part due to the usual summer lull, but perhaps also a reflection of growing market caution,” said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. “With job data showing softening, corporate earnings pointing to stress, and tariff uncertainty clouding forecasts, the pullback is understandable.”
Clancy noted that despite the two-month downturn, the LightBox Index reading has registered seven consecutive months above the 100-point benchmark for healthy CRE activity. Moreover, the 12-month moving average climbed to 100.1, breaking the 100-point benchmark for the first time since early 2022.
The firm said its CRE Activity Index analyzes more than 30,000 data points to measure appraisals procured, properties coming to market, and environmental due diligence demand.
Other report findings:
• Commercial property listings dropped 12% month over month following a similar decline in July after strong gains in June, reflecting a pause in momentum after steady growth earlier this year.
• Pre-transaction and lending environmental due diligence, measured by the volume of Phase I ESA activity, continued its steady streak for the third straight month.
• Lender-driven commercial appraisal volume fell a modest 3% in August, as rate uncertainty and tariff concerns weighed on underwriting.
The report noted that the broader macro backdrop continues to shape sentiment. GDP growth was revised upward in the second quarter, but momentum slowed through the first half of 2025 as consumer spending softened, the labor market showed cracks and inflation pressures persisted.
“Even with mostly positive corporate earnings, the reliance on cost-cutting and automation underscores fragility below the surface, reinforcing a cautious lending and investment environment,” LightBox Research Director Dianne Crocker added.
