Chart of the Week: Total Commercial Real Estate Lending

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

According to MBA’s Annual Origination Summation, from 2020 to 2024, commercial and multifamily mortgage originations experienced notable shifts across investor types. The market peaked in 2021, driven by heightened activity across nearly all sectors, before experiencing a sharp decline in 2023. A modest rebound followed in 2024.

Total commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage borrowing and lending is estimated to have totaled $498 billion in 2024, a 16% increase from the $429 billion in 2023, and a 39% decrease from $816 billion in 2022.

Depositories remained key players throughout the period, with their activity reaching a high point in 2022 before declining. Private Label CMBS also saw significant fluctuations, with a strong showing in 2021, a dip in the following years, and a partial recovery in 2024. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac maintained a steady presence but gradually decreased their share over time.

FHA/Ginnie Mae originations consistently declined over the five-year span. Life insurance companies and pension funds peaked in 2021 and then tapered off slightly, while investor-driven lenders mirrored the broader market trends surging in 2021 and falling in subsequent years. Other lenders remained a smaller, stable part of the market.

As our most recent estimate, MBA was forecasting a 16% gain in origination in 2025 compared to last year. The financial market volatility and economic uncertainty certainly put this number at risk, but we will be tracking the data closely throughout the year. Look for our Q1 originations index out later in May as the next key indicator.

–Reggie Booker (rbooker@mba.org)