Jobs Up by 151,000 in February; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

(Image courtesy of BLS; Breakout image courtesy of Craig Adderley/pexels.com)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released February employment numbers, finding total nonfarm payroll rose by 151,000 in February.

The unemployment rate was at 4.1%, up from 4% in January. The unemployment rate has remained in the 4% to 4.2% range since mid-2024.

Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment fell.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from 307,000 to 323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from 143,000 to 125,000.

“Beyond these headline numbers, there was a marked increase in broader measures of unemployment, with the U-6 increasing half a percentage point over the month, as more individuals took part-time jobs when they would prefer full-time work or were otherwise underemployed. This trend suggests that the underlying job market is somewhat weaker than the headline numbers suggest,” said MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni. “MBA’s forecast is for job growth to slow in 2025 relative to last year and for the unemployment rate to increase close to 4.5% by the end of the year.”

“These data came in quite close to market expectations and hence should not result in much change concerning Fed policy. MBA anticipates that the Fed will keep their target rate steady through the next quarter but will likely cut one more time this year as inflation moves slowly to target and the job market softens,” Fratantoni continued.

“With the labor market holding steady, a Fed rate cut in March remains unlikely, as policymakers stress the need for disinflation or labor market softening for further cuts, but a June cut remains on the table,” noted First American Senior Economic Sam Williamson.

 “However, there is a silver lining for housing and homebuyers. In February, the 10-year yield fell by over 40 basis points, likely due to weakening business and consumer confidence amid recent political turbulence in Washington,” Williamson continued. “Further economic weakness could trigger a renewed flight to safety, driving the yield on 10-year Treasury notes even lower, which would pull mortgage rates down further ahead of the spring home-buying season, potentially enhancing housing affordability.”