JPMorgan Chase’s Al Brooks Gives His 2024 Midyear CRE Outlook

Commercial Observer, May 8, 2024–Al Brooks
The commercial real estate outlook for the second half of 2024 is largely positive — multifamily continues to perform, as do industrial and retail. But challenges could lie ahead. The higher interest rate environment appears to be here to stay, and office vacancies continue to climb.

“On the income side, drivers like rents and vacancies will likely be flat to stable for most property types, with the exception of office,” Victor Calanog, global head of research and strategy for real estate private markets at Manulife Investment Management, told me recently. “On the pricing side, it’s going to be a landmark year when it comes to price discovery. We’re forecasting transaction activity, loan originations and CMBS issuance to rise by 25 percent to 30 percent, relative to 2023 lows.”
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