MBA Forecasts Slight Decline for 2018 Commercial/Multifamily Originations

The Mortgage Bankers Association projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations to decline slightly in 2018, ending the year at $519 billion, down 2 percent from 2017 volumes.

In its latest forecast, MBA expects volumes to remain at roughly that level in 2019 as well. MBA projects mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages at $231 billion in 2018, with total multifamily lending at $257 billion. After strong growth in recent years, multifamily lending is expected to hold roughly steady in 2019.

“Last year was a record for commercial and multifamily borrowing and lending,” said MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell. “Lending terms remain extremely attractive, and we expect another strong year in 2018, although perhaps not quite as strong as 2017.”

MBA said commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2018, ending the year 7 percent higher than at the end of 2017.

MBA commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/crefresearch.