Leading Indicators Suggest ‘Robust’ Growth through 1st Half of Year

The Conference Board, New York, said its Leading Economic Index increased by 1 percent in January, suggesting strong economic growth should continue through the first half of 2018.

The LEI rose to 108.1, following an 0.6 percent increase in December and an 0.4 percent increase in November. The Coincident Economic Index increased by 0.1 percent in January to 103.0, following an 0.3 percent increase in December and an 0.2 percent increase in November. The Lagging Economic Index also increased by 0.1 percent in January to 104.0, following an 0.7 percent increase in December and an 0.1 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research with The Conference Board. “While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted,”

“Stock prices and consumer expectations added 0.18 and 0.09 percentage points, respectively, suggesting consumers and investors feel confident in the near-term economic outlook,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities, Charlotte, N.C. “The recent stock market volatility will likely be reflected next month.”