MBA Revises Down 2016 Commercial/Multifamily Forecast
The Mortgage Bankers Association revised down its 2016 commercial/multifamily forecast, projecting originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages at $500 billion, down from $504 billion in 2015.
MBA had previously forecast $511 billion in commercial/multifamily originations for 2016.
Despite the downward revision, MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said commercial and multifamily real estate markets are likely to end 2016 with another strong year of borrowing and lending.
“The year has started off with more than its fair share of twists and turns,” Woodwell said. “On the demand side, strong property fundamentals and prices should continue to support an active sales market, which will drive mortgage demand.”
On the supply side, Woodwell said, solid originations for life companies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and bank portfolios are expected to make-up for some–but not all–of the slowdown in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market this year.
“The net result will likely be 2016 originations coming in just a shade lower than 2015 levels,” Woodwell said. “Global economic uncertainty and a range of regulations that could affect the availability of CRE financing remain wildcards.”
The revised forecast calls for commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding to continue to grow in 2016, ending the year at $2.9 trillion, more than 3 percent higher than at the end of 2015.
MBA commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/research.
To view the latest MBANow video featuring Woodwell discussing the revised forecast, click https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deT_rWjONv0&feature=em-uploademail.
