CREF Highlights: Updated C/MF Real Estate Finance Forecast

MBA released its Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast.

MBA projects originations of C/MF mortgages will total $500 billion in 2016, roughly flat from the $504 billion originated in 2015 and slightly less than the record of $508 billion originated in 2007. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $210 billion in 2016, with total multifamily lending at $273 billion.

The forecast projects that real estate finance markets are likely to end 2016 with another strong year of borrowing and lending. On the demand side, strong property fundamentals and prices should continue to support an active sales market, which will drive mortgage demand. C/MF mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2016, ending the year at $2.9 trillion, more than three percent higher than at the end of 2015.

MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell gave an overview of the forecast in the most recent MBANow video. MBA members can download a copy of MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/research.

For more information, please contact Jamie Woodwell at jwoodwell@mba.org. 

MBA Releases First Quarter 2016 Commercial/Multifamily DataBook
Last week, MBA released its first quarter 2016 Commercial/Multifamily DataBook.

Main findings included: 

· Domestic property markets largely held steady. During the first quarter office vacancy rates fell from 16.2 percent to 16.1 percent, retail vacancy rates held at 10.0 percent and apartment vacancy rates climbed from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent. Tight or tightening markets boosted rents by 2.1 percent for retail, 3.0 percent for office and 4.6 percent for apartments on a year-over-year basis.

• The improving bottom line continues to draw new development activity, with the value of selected CRE-related construction put-in-place in April up 7 percent from a year before. Multifamily permitting and starts remain strong, such that there are more multifamily units under construction than at any time since the mid-1970s.

• Commercial property sales were solid in the first quarter, but below the high level seen one year prior. Sales of office, industrial and retail properties were below Q1 2015 levels, while multifamily sales were up 12 percent. 

• In the aggregate, commercial real estate borrowing and lending started 2016 in a similarly strong fashion to 2015. Borrowing backed by retail, office, hotel and multifamily properties picked up, as did lending by banks. Disruptions in the broader capital markets pushed originations for commercial mortgage-backed securities down.

The DataBook can be downloaded on MBA’s website. For more information, please contact Reggie Booker at rbooker@mba.org or Jamie Woodwell at jwoodwell@mba.org.

CMF Future Leaders – Enrollment is Now Open 
Enrollment is now open for the 2017 Class of Commercial/Multifamily Future Leaders. MBA Education’s Future Leaders Program is an executive leadership development program that delivers a comprehensive curriculum for selected managers who have shown leadership interests and abilities.

Participants enhance their skills through three hands-on sessions geared toward political activism; business analysis and problem solving; and experiential learning through collaboration, networking and peer group interaction.

• Early Bird Enrollment: June 30, 2016 – September 2, 2016

• Regular Enrollment: September 3, 2016 – November 18, 2016For more information or to register click here. 

MBA’s CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2017 
Join more than 3,000 commercial and multifamily real estate finance professionals at the must-attend industry event February 19-22 in San Diego for four days of networking, relationship building and deal making.

MBA’s Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2017 (CREF17) is the place that offers unrivaled access to key industry leaders, CEOs and expert panelists who discuss the latest industry trends, regulatory developments and strategies to succeed in today’s dynamic marketplace.

Member attendees 35 years old and younger are eligible to receive a $600 discount. More information and registration is available here.