MBA Chart of the Week: Mortgage Banker Commercial/Multifamily Originations–Actual & Forecast
Despite a rocky beginning to the year, commercial and multifamily real estate finance markets are likely to end 2016 with another strong year of borrowing and lending.
The Mortgage Bankers Association projects mortgage banker originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will total $500 billion in 2016, roughly flat from the $504 billion originated in 2015 and slightly less than the record of $508 billion originated in 2007. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $210 billion in 2016, with total multifamily lending at $273 billion, both of which would represent record highs.
On the demand side, strong property fundamentals and prices should continue to support an active sales market, which will drive mortgage demand. On the supply side, solid originations for life companies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and bank portfolios are expected to make-up for some–but not all–of the slowdown in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market this year. The net result will likely be 2016 originations coming in just a shade lower than 2015 levels. Global economic uncertainty and a range of regulations that could affect the availability of CRE financing remain wildcards.
Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2016, ending the year at $2.9 trillion, more than 3 percent higher than at the end of 2015.
MBA commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/research.
To view the Chart of the Week, click https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/forecasts-and-commentary/chart-of-the-week.
(Jamie Woodwell is vice president of commercial/multifamily research and economics with the Mortgage Bankers Association. He can be reached at jwoodwell@mba.org.)
