MBA Forecast: 2016 Commercial/Multifamily Originations to Hit Record

ORLANDO–The Mortgage Bankers Association projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages to grow to $511 billion in 2016, an increase of 3 percent from 2015 volumes and slightly more than the previous record of $508 billion originated in 2007.   

MBA also forecast mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages to reach $202 billion in 2016, with total multifamily lending at $262 billion.  

“This past year was extremely strong for commercial real estate finance,” said MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell. “Property incomes are rising, interest rates are low and property values are up. We expect the momentum to continue into 2016 and to support both the demand for and supply of commercial and multifamily mortgage capital.”   

Woodwell said a growing economy, coupled with only gradual increases in interest rates, should continue to support a strong commercial property market. “But there is a chance that cap rates could increase more rapidly in response to rising interest rates, impacting property sales and mortgage originations,” he said.  

MBA forecasts commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding to continue to grow in 2016, ending the year at $2.9 trillion, more than 3 percent higher than at the end of 2015.  

MBA released its forecast here at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Finance Convention & Expo.  

MBA commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of the Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/research.