New York Fed: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase
Households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and medium-term horizons and remained unchanged at the longer-term horizon, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Center for Microeconomic Data’s March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations noted gas price growth expectations surged to the highest level since March 2022. “Job finding expectations improved, while job loss expectations and expectations about the unemployment rate worsened,” the report said. “Spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Respondents were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations.”
The main findings from the March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March, the report said.
Home Prices
Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%. “This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023,” the FRBNY said.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4% in March, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.6% and at the low end of its range seen since May 2021 of 2.4% to 3.0%.
“Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 3.6 percentage points to 43.5%. This is the highest reading of the series since April 2025,” the report said.
Household Finance
The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.9% in March. Median one-year-ahead household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.1%, the report said.
The survey was fielded from March 2 through March 31, 2026.
