LightBox Reports CRE Index Hits 2025 Peak
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LightBox, Irvine, Calif., reported its September Commercial Real Estate Activity Index climbed to 116.8, its highest reading this year.
September’s results extend the index’s eight-month streak above the 100-point benchmark that indicates healthy market activity.
The rebound followed August’s seasonal dip. LightBox said it was fueled by a late-third-quarter surge in property listings, steady appraisal pipelines and continued strength in environmental due diligence.
The September index reading captured the market’s quick reaction to the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut in mid-September, which improved sentiment and spurred renewed activity.
September’s CRE Activity Index highlights:
Commercial property listings surged 25% month over month, reversing two months of declines and returning to June-level strength as sellers re-entered the market.
Phase I ESA volume held steady and elevated, just shy of June’s peak, signaling consistent pre-transaction and lending activity.
Lender-driven commercial appraisals ticked up 1%, reflecting cautious optimism among lenders responding to improved rate clarity.
“September’s rebound was both expected and encouraging,” said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. “We’re seeing sellers return to the market and lenders gradually stepping up activity in response to the Fed’s easing. The combination of improved liquidity and rising confidence suggests that the August slowdown was a short-term lull, not a trend reversal.”
Despite the renewed activity, the report indicates that headwinds remain. Labor data show softening conditions, inflation is proving sticky, and a nascent federal shutdown has introduced new uncertainty. Still, the market’s resilience in the face of these challenges underscores the strength of underlying demand across CRE segments.
“After months of cautious optimism, the September data show real follow-through,” added Clancy. “If rates continue to ease and credit conditions hold steady, we could see this recovery broaden into early 2026.”
The September rebound confirms that August’s slowdown was temporary, with activity resuming across listings, due diligence, and lending channels. At 116.8, the Index climbed from 104.4 in August and 102.7 a year earlier, signaling that investors and lenders are re-engaging as rate clarity improves.
“Mixed headlines aside, investors are still moving to close deals. Lenders are engaged, pipelines are refilling, and listings are up. These are clear signs of a cautious but widening recovery as Q4 gets underway,” observed Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox.
Preliminary LightBox data show roughly $26 billion in commercial transactions closed in September, making it the busiest month of 2025. Deals over $100 million climbed 17%, while $50–$100 million transactions rose 26%, reinforcing investor appetite for well-located assets across multifamily, industrial, and select office categories.
“With multiple tailwinds in play, from rate relief to stronger deal flow, the market is entering Q4 in better shape than many expected earlier this summer,” said Clancy.
