TransUnion Predicts Increase in Mortgage Originations This Year

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TransUnion, Chicago, released its Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report, predicting multiple credit products will see growth this year. For mortgages specifically, the report anticipated a 13.3% year-over-year origination growth.

TransUnion noted that mortgage originations ended 2024 at 4.6 million; and predicts they will hit 5.7 million this year, with most of those (approximately 3.8 million) being purchase originations.

In Q3–the most recent data TransUnion analyzed–purchase applications were 82% of originations, compared with 68% on average for Q3 in pre-pandemic years. However, rate-and-term refinances also increased significantly.

Account-level delinquencies of 60-plus days past due were at 1.38% for Q4.

“Year-over-year increases in delinquency continue to be worth monitoring closely. Yet, even despite a relatively steady series of year-over-year increases in recent quarters, the rate remains extremely low relative to historical standards,” said Satyan Merchant, Senior Vice President, Automotive and Mortgage Business Leader at TransUnion.

Through Q4, TransUnion reported continued signs of a more stable consumer credit environment that began in Q3.

“In Q4 2024, we saw several signals inching toward a return to more typical patterns within the consumer credit market,” said Michele Raneri, Vice President and Head of Research at TransUnion. “Originations ticked up across mortgage and auto and saw more significant growth in unsecured personal loans. In contrast, delinquencies presented more of a mixed bag, seeing increases in auto and mortgage, while at the same time decreasing for unsecured personal loans and credit cards. We will be looking for additional signs of improved performance in these markets moving forward.”