Yardi Matrix: Fully Affordable Housing Deliveries to Hit Peak in 2025

(Image courtesy of Yardi Matrix; Breakout image courtesy of Brett Sayles/pexels.com)

Yardi Matrix, Santa Barbara, Calif., released a new study on affordable housing, forecasting that deliveries of fully affordable housing will reach 69,600 in 2024 and 70,500 in 2025, before dropping in future years.

Starts have declined this year, leading to that drop in 2026 and beyond.

In the new study, Yardi Matrix also compared the average maximum allowable rent of fully affordable units with the average advertised rent of market-rate units broken into four levels of apartment quality: discretionary, upper mid-range, low mid-range and workforce.

Then, for each metro it calculated the average advertised rent in each of the categories and the share of apartment units in each category. Housing quality categories were deemed “competitive” with fully affordable when the percentage of households that could afford the average rent for market-rate units–without being cost burdened–fell within 10% of the same calculation for fully affordable units.

In terms of where market-rate and fully affordable properties are competitive, it varied significantly by area, Yardi Matrix found.

At least 90% of market-rate stock is competitive with affordable properties in seven small markets: South Dakota, Wichita, Kan., Huntsville, Ala., Amarillo, Texas, Des Moines, Iowa, Fayetteville, Ark., and Omaha, Neb.

Austin, Columbus and Suburban Chicago also fared well–although not at the 90% mark.

However, there are 32 metros in which no market-rate properties are competitive–including big, expensive cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Miami and Northern New Jersey. Some smaller metros such as Hickory, N.C. and Port St. Lucie, Fla., also made the list.

Factors such as relative costs in high-cost of living areas vs. lower, the level of supply growth and the composition of rental stock all affect the outlook for affordability in a given area.